Introduction

RBP Insights

New Age Alpha is an investment management firm based in Rye, New York. We offer diverse investment products based on our proprietary probability-driven h-factor investment methodology.

We apply our disciplined and systematic investment approach across all equity styles, capitalizations, regions, and fixed income. We are committed to delivering exceptional outcomes to our clients.

New Age Alpha LLC ("New Age Alpha") has licensed the Guggenheim RBP® Blended Index, Guggenheim RBP® Large-Cap Defensive 100 Index and the RBP® methodology from Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, "Guggenheim"). For additional information on these indexes, see the Document Library under the Education Tab.

The Indexes are created using rules-based, published analytics and is based in part on a measurement called Required Business Performance® RBP®.

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What is Required Business Performance®?

Required Business Performance, or RBP, is the revenue growth necessary to support the current stock price. New Age Alpha uses the RBP® Methodology to determine each company's Required Business Performance® based on publicly available financial information.

RBP® Probability

The probability management will deliver the Required Business Performance® to support the stock price is called RBP Probability. The RBP Probability, provides an objective, disciplined, rules-based way of measuring the probability that management will deliver the Required Business Performance.

Calculating - A Fact-Driven Approach

At New Age Alpha, we reverse the traditional valuation method by starting with the value of a stock as determined by the market. Our methodology utilizes third-party valuation models including discounted free cash flow, company's current stock price, its income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statements to determine what the current price of its stock implies about future revenue growth and RBP®. This process is fact driven.

Transparent Value Approach

How We Calculate RBP® Probability

To determine the RBP® Probability for a given company, we first determine the revenue growth required to support the current stock price. We do this using third-party valuation models including discounted cash flow and the stock price as the input and then solve for the required revenue growth rates.

Then, the company's historical revenue growth rate is fit to a distribution curve using data from the prior twelve quarters. With this curve and the company's required revenue growth rate, we can calculate the probability that management will deliver the required revenue growth.

Indexes Overview

Guggenheim RBP® Blended Index and Guggenheim RBP® Large-Cap Defensive 100 Index are owned by Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, "Guggenheim"), and are licensed by New Age Alpha. These indices are calculated by S&P Dow Jones Indices. New Age Alpha calculates the Required Business Performance (RBP) Probabilities used in the index construction.

Using the RBP® Methodology, we calculate the likelihood management can deliver the Required Business Performance, known as the RBP Probability for every stock in our universe. Stocks are then selected for inclusion in the index based in part on their RBP probabilities.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Index data is provided for informational purposes only. An index is unmanaged, not subject to fees and not available for direct investment. These Indexes are not meant to be used as suggestions regarding the advisability of investing in any securities of any company, investment fund or other investment vehicle. A decision to invest should not be made in reliance on any of the statements set forth on this website.

Guggenheim RBP Blended Index and Guggenheim RBP Large-Cap Defensive 100 Index (the "Indices") are the property of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC and its affiliates (collectively, "Guggenheim"), which has licensed them to New Age Alpha LLC, which has contracted with S&PDJI to maintain and calculate the Indices. The S&P 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures Total Return Index is the property of S&P and/or their third-party licensors and has been licensed by S&PDJI for use by New Age Alpha in connection with the Indices. S&PDJI shall have no liability for any errors or omissions in calculating the Indices.

Guggenheim, RBP and Required Business Performance are registered trademarks of Guggenheim and are the property of Guggenheim and licensed to New Age Alpha. All New Age Alpha trademarks are owned by New Age Alpha LLC. All other company or product names mentioned or displayed herein are the property of their respective owners.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the RBP® Methodology?

RBP® stands for Required Business Performance and represents the level of performance that a company must deliver to support its current stock price. The aim of the RBP® Methodology is to reveal the information contained in the stock price within a concise, easy-to-understand metric.

What is RBP® Probability?

RBP Probability is calculated by fitting historical levels of business performance to a distribution curve and then finding the company's RBP within this distribution.

Is there a universal/standard approach to analysis?

There are seven templates designed around the structure of financial reporting standards for various industries. The templates contain the discounted free cash flow models, RBP® calculations, and probability calculations. While the format of the financial statements differs, the underlying calculation of RBP® is the same.

Standard templates cover the following industries:

  • Energy/Oil & Gas
  • Real Estate
  • Banking
  • Home Builders
  • Broker Dealers
  • Insurance
  • Commercial

The most common industry classification, Commercial, refers to all sectors that do not fall into one of the other categories.

Corporate Address

New Age Alpha LLC

555 Theodore Fremd Avenue, Suite A 101
Rye, New York 10580

Media Inquiries

Mark Burns

mburns@newagealpha.com

212.922.2684